No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 2 Nuggets

These two teams are remarkably similar: Both feature several quick and supremely athletic players who can light up the scoreboard. Both ball clubs like to play up-tempo basketball. Both rely heavily on contributions from their respective benches. And the defenses of both teams are significantly overrated.

Why the Lakers should win

Knowing that the Nuggets are armed and dangerous, the Lakers will avoid sleepwalking through ball games. No more 20-point deficits in the first quarter. No more late lapses of concentration that will dissipate hard-won double-digit leads. No more questions about L.A.'s killer instinct.

Kobe's been there, done that and until proven otherwise, remains on a level of excellence that 'Melo has yet to reach.

Gasol and Bynum can both run with Nene, who will nevertheless stubbornly force at least five shots per game.

The Lakers will avoid quick shots and work the triangle for at least 20 seconds whenever they're forced to play half-court basketball. Since Denver plays defense in the starting blocks, they'll be much too eager to get out and go for them to hunker down and defend for that long.

Trevor Ariza's quickness should limit Carmelo Anthony's catches and also challenge his every dribble. For a different look, Odom's length will force 'Melo to pull in his game and also to force some shots.

The Lakers' defensive transition will likely limit the damage Denver can inflict on the run. Plus, the Lakers will undoubtedly tag the Nuggets' most proficient perimeter shooters in early offense situations.

Look for L.A.'s defenders to aggressively close out Denver's long-range bombers, to discourage 3-point shots and force them to drive the ball into the bosom of the Lakers' long-armed defense.

The Lakers' defensive scheme is much more coordinated than Denver's.

Overall, the Lakers' most significant advantage is their pressure and playoff experience.

THE LAKERS SHOULD WIN IN 7.

Why the Nuggets could win

'Melo will be able to post Ariza for profit. When their roles are switched, pressuring Ariza's handle will create turnovers galore.

On both ends of the game, Nene can out-trick Bynum and overpower Gasol. On defense, look for Nene to root Gasol out of his favorite low-post spot near the left box. Also, Gasol can be effectively two-timed once he puts the ball on the floor.

Billups is too strong for Fisher to contain — either on the drive or in the low post.

High brush-screens in early offense will free up Denver's prime-time shooters.

The Nuggets will take full advantage of the Lakers' weak screen-and-roll defense. Since Fisher's thick body makes it difficult for him to navigate solid screens, the Nuggets will employ high screen-and-rolls and screen-and-fades that involve Billups and Anthony.

Doubling Kobe with a big like Martin will cut down his vision. And if Kobe's release passes to Gasol can be anticipated, the Lakers' offense will be totally jammed up.

By banging his defender and then executing a quick reverse-spin, Nene will have a field day against either Gasol or Bynum.

Since the Lakers' defense is best against isolations, the Nuggets will emphasize rapid ball- and player-movement and limit their one-on-one play.

Because Denver's offense is slightly more explosive, they can run off a dozen points in a heartbeat while Jackson sits on his hands. In fact, the kinetic dynamism of Denver's offense could force the Lakers to slow the game down to a pace that really doesn't suit them.

Denver's bench — J.R. Smith, Anthony Carter and Chris Andersen — will wreak much more destruction than the likes of Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic.

Indeed, Vujacic's itchy defense is incredibly susceptible to his being back-doored.

And Walton's floor-bound defense can be relentlessly attacked as well.

To prevent the Lakers from jumping off to a good start, Denver must take only good shots, make careful passes and play solid defense.

But here's the main reason why Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the series: In the past, Kobe has tended to abandon any semblance of discipline when playing against Denver. Even though they may not be routinely matched up against each other, Kobe has a history of getting into a personalized tit-for-tat and shot-for-shot competition with 'Melo. The more points Anthony scores, the more Kobe wants to score and the more he aborts the delicate timing of the triangle offense.

If Dahntay Jones' body-up defensive tactics can aggravate Kobe to any degree, then this history is more likely to be repeated. The same for wing-doublings and an occasional confrontation by K-Mart's belligerent defense.

When/if Kobe does go off, he's certainly capable of scoring 40-plus points and winning a game single-handedly. Far more likely, however, is the probability of his teammates getting disgusted and losing their desire to bust their butts on offense and on defense.

On the court as well as off the court, discipline, patience and hard work are the elements that Denver will need to advance.

The only way they can gain and maintain this necessary focus is to totally avoid being caught up in the seductive Hollywood hoopla.

THE NUGGETS COULD WIN IN 7.